Underlying Momentum Still Solid; Tariffs/FX Moderation a Quarter Away

研报英文原文证据摘录

Underlying Momentum Still Solid; Tariffs/FX Moderation a Quarter Away

tially; in the US, key partners were up 30%, with strong full price sell 52-Week High / Low US$59.50 / US$33.06

through. Closed toe continues to resonate--Boston grew mid to high teens, while non Shares Out (mil) 183.9

Boston within closed toe was up double that. Market Cap. (mil) US$6,979.0

Avg Daily Vol (000) 2,230

Div Yield 0.00%

• What did we learn from the callback? Sales growth was driven 2/3 by units and 1/3 Fiscal Year End Sep

by price; we model EMEA up 11% for the rest of the year. Management is not concerned

about re-allocating €10-12M in inventory from the Middle East: the bulk will go to APAC Price Performance - 1 Year

as well as to the US (company seems confident in the current consumer landscape), USD

with own store openings (26 more to open globally in F2H26, up from 20 opened in 60

F2H25) providing the capacity. BIRK is pleased with capacity ramp thus far (Arouca is 55

ramping pre-assembly, Gorlitz is on track to have more cork by F4Q26), which should

continue building over the course of FY27. 50

• Tweak down est. and PT. For FY27/28, we model cc sales up 15%/15%, with EBITDA 40

margins at 30.2%/31.1%, respectively; for F3Q26, we model cc sales +13%, with B2B 35

growing faster than DTC by 3-points. BIRK still has €200M on the share buyback

(35 of the market cap) which company has said would be used in FY26; we suspect May-2530 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26

management could be acquisitive at these levels. Our PT of $50 (from $55) is based on

Source: Bloomberg

11x EV/EBITDA vs. 12x previously, to account for global macro.

RISKS TO ACHIEVEMENT OF PT & RECOMMENDATION

Competition, changes in fashion trends, high PE ownership

COMPANY DESCRIPTION