JD Logistics, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

JD Logistics, Inc.: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

RiskRisk RewardReward– JD Logistics,- JD Logistics,Inc. (2618.HK) Inc. (2618.HK)

Back to Margin Improvement; OW

PRICE TARGET HK$16.90 OVERWEIGHT THESIS

Discounted cash flow, probability-weighted 15% bull case, 70% base case, 15% bear case. We ▪We expect JDL to achieve outperforming

see equal probability that our bull and bear cases play out, in view of its improvement in cost profit growth in 2026 thanks to improved

efficiency despite macro headwinds as well as dependence on its parent group. efficiency following front-loaded investment

Key DCF assumptions: 17.1% WACC and 3% terminal growth rate. in 2025, despite fuel price risks.

the medium to long term, we expect to HK$18.22 ▪In

see further cost efficiency improvements

Consensus Price Target Distribution HK$15.91 HK$22.03 thanks to its dedication to tech investments. MS PT

stock is trading at 9x 2026P/E, whichSource: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates ▪The

we view as attractive compared with the

peer average of 15x. Our price target implies

2026e P/E of 11x, below the peer average

RISK REWARD CHART considering the dependence on JD Group.

HKD HK$26.10HK$26.10(+72.39%)HK$26.10(+72.39%)(+72.39%) Consensus Rating Distribution

100%Overweight

24 0% Equal-weight

0% Underweight

MS Rating

HK$16.90HK$16.90(+11.62%)HK$16.90(+11.62%)(+11.62%)

HK$15.14HK$15.14HK$15.14 Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Risk Reward Themes

HK$9.30HK$9.30(-38.57%)HK$9.30(-38.57%)(-38.57%) Pricing Power: Negative

6 Self-help: Positive

Technology Diffusion: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research