JD Health International Inc.: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

JD Health International Inc.: Risk Reward Update

Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull, Risk Reward Themes

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 14

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either Pricing Power: Negative

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

BULL CASE HK$90.00 BASE CASE HK$64.00 BEAR CASE HK$34.00

33x 2026e bull case adj. EPS 28x 2026e base case adj. EPS 17x 2026e bear case adj. EPS

High teens % 2025-28 revenue CAGR with ~14% 2025-28 revenue CAGR with largely <10% 2025-28 revenue CAGR with a larger

resilient margin from an elevated base: flat margin from front-loaded offline magnitude of margin deterioration:

Better-than-expected healthcare e- investment and lower interest income offset Prolonged soft growth of healthcare e-

commerce market growth and share gains by GPM and G&A improvement: Direct sales commerce market, intensifying competition

by JD Health; highly favorable regulatory and service income growth re-acceleration and market share loss by JD Health;

development towards the Internet from 2025-28, in line with our expectations; unfavorable regulatory development

healthcare industry; resilient GPM and OPM some minor margin decline in 2025-28 from towards Internet healthcare industry;

from economies of scale in procurement and front-loaded offline investment and lower notably deteriorating OPM from

operating leverage, more than able to interest income; gradual improvement in the unfavorable mix shift, substantial offline