North American Utilities Model Updates: OGE & POR

研报英文原文证据摘录

North American Utilities Model Updates: OGE & POR

Aidan C Kelly AC North America Equity Research

(1-212) 622-4912 15 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

aidan.x.kelly@jpmchase.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

OGE Energy Corp (Overweight; Price Target: $52.00)

Investment Thesis

OGE stands out as a pure-play SMID-cap vertically integrated electric utility with

meaningful leverage to regional transmission expansion and generation investments

required to accommodate Oklahoma’s economic development activity and SPP resource

adequacy needs. Access to low-cost renewables/gas resources, abundant land, and

disciplined utility cost control has produced near-industry-low retail rates, which continue

to attract sizable, multi-faceted load growth to the state. Supported by constructive OCC

alignment around new capacity deployment, OGE appears ripe to realize a durable, multi-

year 9.0% rate base CAGR that extends beyond rate cycles and the current planning horizon.

Net of these themes, ratemaking advantages unlocked by SB 998, top-tier ~17% FFO/Debt

credit metrics, and relatively modest equity needs (in proportion to capex), we see OGE as

well positioned to execute against the top end of its targeted 5-7% EPS CAGR under

baseline assumptions, with potential to exceed this range should capacity needs materialize

above expectations. Accordingly, we see favorable risk-reward from current levels and

reiterate our Overweight rating.

Valuation

We maintain our Dec 2026 price target of $52/share, using an adjusted 20.1x P/E multiple

on our 2027 estimate. Our consolidated multiple represents an appropriate premium to

SMID-cap utility peers on account of 1) a proven EPS compounding track record (realized

~6% CAGR over last 10 years), 2) strong load growth tailwinds, 3) top-tier balance sheet