Japan Post Bank (7182) 4Q results: New medium-term plan raises expectations for additional shareholder payouts; actual operations remain to be seen

研报英文原文证据摘录

Japan Post Bank (7182) 4Q results: New medium-term plan raises expectations for additional shareholder payouts; actual operations remain to be seen

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

16 May 2026

Japan Post Bank (7182)

4Q results: New medium-term plan raises expectations Overweight

for additional shareholder payouts; actual operations 7182.T, 7182 JP

remain to be seen Price (15 May 26):¥2,829

Price Target (Dec-26):¥3,940

Somewhat positive: 4Q FY2025 net profit rose 40% YoY to ¥147.9 billion, Japan Equity Research

beating our estimate of ¥123.9 billion mainly on net interest income (NII). Interest

Banks

on overseas securities was better than we expected. FY2026 net profit guidance is

¥660 billion (+26% YoY; we expected guidance of ¥650 billion). However, the Takahiro Yano, CFA AC

planned DPS is ¥93 (we expected it would be ¥110). Management did not raise the (81-3) 6736-8616

takahiro.yano@jpmorgan.com

dividend payout ratio target as we had expected, but we think a total payout ratio

Kohichi Takano

of around 70% can be expected under the new medium-term plan. (81-3) 6736 8621

• FY2028 targets of net profit over ¥1 trillion and ROE (based on kohichi.takano@jpmorgan.comJPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

shareholders’ equity) of around 10%: With the strong 4Q results, FY2025

net profit totaled ¥525.6 billion, beating the ¥500 billion guidance.

Consequently, management finalized DPS at ¥74 (based on a 50% dividend

payout ratio), up from previous guidance of ¥70. Targets in the new FY2026–

28 medium-term plan include an increase in net profit from ¥525.6 billion in

FY2025 to over ¥1 trillion and an improvement in ROE (based on shareholders’

equity) from 5.3% to around 10%. Management bases its macroeconomic

assumptions on implied forward rates as of end-March 2026.