The Magnum Ice Cream Company News headlines: Potential PE interest, but tax matters and Turkey anti-trust probe

研报英文原文证据摘录

The Magnum Ice Cream Company News headlines: Potential PE interest, but tax matters and Turkey anti-trust probe

Celine Pannuti, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44-20) 7134-7123 15 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

celine.pannuti@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

The Magnum Ice Cream Company (Neutral; Price Target: €13.00)

Investment Thesis

The Magnum Ice Cream Company began trading as a listed stand-alone company as it

demerged from Unilever Group. The equity story offers a mid-long term EPS growth of

HSD CAGR26-29E, supported by industry growth of 3-4% and substantial margin

opportunity in narrowing the profitability gap with key peer Froneri through supply chain

productivities. We expect TMICC to deliver on its guidance range for LFL 3-5% and

average EBITDA margin improvement of 40-60bps pa over 2026-30E. Yet, as it sets up as

an independent company, we expect the ramp-up in costs will lead to a delivery that is back-

end loaded, with 2025/26 margin weighed down by India consolidation and TSA impacts

on D&A, and weaker FCF. From a top-line perspective, TMICC has seen good progress in

2025 but with tougher comparatives and potential headwinds (weak consumer, pricing

easing, GLP-1) that may weigh on 2026E delivery. While MT EPS growth and FCF

prospects look compelling, we expect FY26 to be at the bottom of the MT Algo. We have

a Neutral rating and DCF-derived Dec-2027 PT of €13.

Valuation

We set a Dec-2027 DCF derived target price of €13 based on a terminal growth of +1.5%

and WACC of 10%.

Table 2: TMICC DCF Valuation

PV of FCF 6,028

PV of terminal value 5,267

Enterprise value 11,295

Net debt (FY27E) ex pension (3,083)

Pension (FY27E) 2

Minorities (FY27E) (8)

Equity value 8,206

No. of shares (FY27E) 616

Implied share price 13

Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.