A rock and a hard place

研报英文原文证据摘录

A rock and a hard place

Macquarie Equity Research Temple & Webster

Issue One Tough 12 months, but structural risks are limited

A rock and a hard place: Focus on profitability, but at the cost of growth/scale

We think TPW is rational to pull-back on advertising/marketing expenditure and prioritise

preserving the profitability of the business during the current macro downturn, which is

Path to lucrative scale particularly acute for household retail.

grows harder over NTM However, in our view, the primary investor thesis on TPW was driven by the retailer reaching

AU market penetration that would allow for fixed cost leverage and reductions in CAC, with

TPW being able to increasingly rely on its repeat, existing customer base.

Whilst TPW has called-out marketing efficiencies, we think that cuts to marketing spend are

likely to have some degree of impact on revenue growth (in an environment where revenue is

already under-pressure).

We see limited path to TPW achieving this scale in the near term, given the macro, and

consequently, limited investor upside for the stock.

Worsening macro outlined

All datapoints that we can track suggest further weakness for TPW, with Factset data

indicating the market is pricing in further Australian interest rate increases over FY27.

Further, our Macquarie High Frequency Credit Card data indicates that Home Furniture spend

declined slightly YoY in Apr-26 (rounds to 0%), after growing +4% in the March quarter.

Figure 1 - Market expectations of interest rates Figure 2 - Home Furniture (% total spending) on a

yearly stack (HFCD to end April)

Source: Macquarie Research, May 2026

Source: Factset, May 2026, as at 12-May-26

Figure 3 - Furniture spend has turned negative in Apr-26

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, May 2026

13 May 2026 2