ANZ Healthcare: Trimming the Fat

研报英文原文证据摘录

ANZ Healthcare: Trimming the Fat

Macquarie Equity Research

13 May 2026

Health Care

AustraliaANZ Healthcare: Trimming the Fat

Resolving the GLP-1 Evidence Conflict: Noise vs

Signal for RMD, FPH, and RHC Dr. Bryan Christine

Tan Trinh

Key Points

Figure 1 - Coverage details• RMD/FPH: Near-term earnings driven by diagnosis and adherence,

current GLP-1 efficacy does not support CPAP displacement.

• RHC: Earnings sensitivity near-term is utilisation and elective elasticity,

not GLP-1-driven substitution.

• GLP-1s: Driving sentiment, not earnings. Early uptake expands Source: Macquarie Research, May 2026

engagement, with utilisation impacts longer-dated.

• Still early in the GLP-1 adoption curve, with uptake expanding

engagement and diagnosis rather than displacing demand. Australian

penetration (~1.8%) remains well below the US (~9%), implying ~20%

of mature-market levels, with impact concentrated in screening and

diagnosis rather than treatment substitution.

• Equipment earnings are driven by OSA diagnosis, therapy initiation and

adherence, which we see as the most resilient earnings exposure in the

current environment. For ResMed (RMD) and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare

(FPH), near-term sensitivity is anchored to these drivers. Epidemiological

data show ~10% weight loss delivers only a ~25–30% reduction in AHI,

insufficient for CPAP discontinuation at a population level. Even at ~22%

weight loss (SURMOUNT-OSA), ~48–57% of patients remained OSA-

positive. This supports a favourable near-term risk-reward skew for

diagnosis and adherence-driven names (RMD, FPH), with limited evidence

of volume displacement.

Þ GLP-1s act as a funnel multiplier for sleep therapy, with RMD

data (~1.95m patients) showing higher CPAP initiation (~+11%) and