Listed property sector

研报英文原文证据摘录

Listed property sector

Macquarie Equity Research

13 May 2026

REITs

AustraliaListed property sector

Budget 2026/27: Structural tax reform to

reshape housing demand Callum David

Bramah Pobucky

Key Points

• Resi: CGT discount and negative gearing to shift property demand from Elizabeth

investor-driven housing toward owner-occupiers and insto capital. Andre, CFA

• Retail: Targeted cost of living support to help support a softening

consumer; however, housing policy changes are a negative to the

wealth effect.

• Industrial: Benefits from continued infrastructure spend and business

incentives.

A step-change Budget: from incremental support to structural housing

reform. The 2026/27 Budget has introduced material housing tax reform,

transitioning from stimulating demand in prior budgets to reshaping the

composition of demand. The most substantial changes have included:

1) replacing the 50% CGT discount with indexation with a 30% minimum

tax; and 2) limiting negative gearing to new builds only. The policies are

aimed at directing investor demand to facilitate new supply and improve

affordability. However, near term, the risk is that monetary policy tightening

with taxation reform softens sentiment and housing demand slows. Whilst

Source: Federal Budget, May 2026

consensus has been cutting earnings estimates for SGP (FY27 -8% & FY28

-9%) and MGR (FY27 -9% & FY28 -10%) since Oct-25, we believe there Figure 2 - Macquarie PT summary

is further downside risk and remain marginally below consensus for SGP

(FY27E -2.0% & FY28E -0.5%) and MGR (FY27E -1.7% & FY28E +4.2%). StockARF Share price (12-May)3.24 3.90PT 26%TSR OutperformRec.

BWP 3.75 3.90 9% Neutral

Wealth effect headwind vs income support tailwind. Reduced investor CHC 19.41 20.71 9% Outperform