MFIC: MFIC: Advisor Surrenders, but Risk Remains

研报英文原文证据摘录

MFIC: MFIC: Advisor Surrenders, but Risk Remains

BDC Equity Research

Wells Fargo Express Takeaways

MidCap Financial Investment Corporation (MFIC) | Rating: Equal Weight | Price Target: $10.50

Analyst: Finian P. O'Shea

Financials Investment Thesis

Our Equal Weight rating reflects MFIC's recent credit experience inFY (Dec) 2026E 2027E 2028E

$ the broader credit market rebound since mid-'22. A recent credit

ESTIMATES patch is likely to weigh on the market's assessment of NAV amid

EPS large-scale repurchases.

Q1 0.38 A 0.30 E 0.30 E

Q2 0.41 E 0.29 E 0.31 E

Q3 0.34 E 0.30 E 0.31 E Risk vs. Reward – Upside/Downside Price Target Scenarios

Q4 0.32 E 0.30 E 0.31 E

AN 1.44 E 1.19 E 1.22 E

Rev. (MM) 267.5 E 227.0 E 208.9 E Upside Scenario $12.00

WELLS FARGO vs. CONSENSUS

Consensus Estimate 1.35 E 1.30 E 1.30 E Base Case $10.50 * $11.68

Difference from Consensus (8.2)% (5.9)%

Downside Scenario $9.00

VALUATION

P/E 8.1x 9.8x 9.5x

$7 $8 $9 $10 $14EV/Revenue 10.8x 12.7x 13.8x

Consensus Estimate: EPS; Source: FactSet

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

NA = Not Available, NE = No Estimate *As of 05/08/26

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC estimates and Factset.

Base Case | $10.50 Upside Scenario | $12.00 Downside Scenario | $9.00

MFIC's recent credit experience is likely to An upside scenario in the near term likely A downside scenario in the near term likely

weigh on perception of MidCap-originated involves improved credit performance involves weakening credit performance,

assets, which now dominate its portfolio (exit of Merx, successful re-orgs of non- growing non-accruals, and / or widening

composition. We believe shares should trade accruals) and / or contracting (Single-B) (Single-B) credit spreads. In such an