KEPCO "A prolonged energy disruption limits visibility" (Neutral) Cho

研报英文原文证据摘录

KEPCO "A prolonged energy disruption limits visibility" (Neutral) Cho

requires monitoring, in our view. Despite the OP miss, NP 12/26E 8,554 8,600 1 13,614

(Won2.5trn, +7% YoY) was in line with consensus due to Won111bn FX gain. 12/27E 6,173 6,887 12 15,571

12/28E 10,228 9,812 -4 14,831

Downside risk to 2026-27 consensus EPS as energy prices remain elevated

Yoon ChoSince our earnings update in April, oil price has remained broadly as expected (Brent ~US

Analyst

$100/bbl) while thermal coal (US$132/t) and spot LNG (JKM US$17/mmbtu) were yoon.cho@ubs.com

surprisingly softer. Extrapolating these, we lift our 2026/2027E EPS by 1%/12% but +82-2-3702 8805

remain 20%/52% below consensus. We forecast Q226 OP of Won2.0trn (7% YoY),

Brandon Suh19% below pre-results consensus, as Korea’s imported coal/gas prices already started to

rise in April (reflecting weaker won and potentially spot cargo, in our view), and SMP brandon.suh@ubs.com

quarter to date is up 11% QoQ. Nuclear plant maintenance schedules suggest +82-2-3702 8813

utilization to remain suboptimal in Q2 (83%) before rising above 90% in 2H26E. We

assume electricity tariffs to remain unchanged amid government’s focus on taming

inflation. A risk to monitor is announcement of regionally differentiated power pricing,

which management expects to be finalized in 2H26. Despite earlier media report,

KEPCO indicated it has not discussed SMP cap with the government yet.

Valuation: Neutral; Won45,000 PT at 0.55x 2026E P/BV

Our Won45,000 PT is unchanged, based on 0.55x 2026E P/BV versus historical range of

0.2-0.7x. Our target multiple is broadly in line with 2014-16 levels, when ROE level was

similar to our projected 2026-28E average (9.9%).

Highlights (Wonb) 12/23 12/24 12/25 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E 12/29E 12/30E