WiseTech Global "DSV risk firming up but may take time" (Buy) Huang

研报英文原文证据摘录

WiseTech Global "DSV risk firming up but may take time" (Buy) Huang

ch Cons.

DSV likely isolated case. We see minimal contagion risk to other customers

06/26E 0.67 0.67 0 0.74

As we had previously discussed, market appears to be factoring a level of "contagion" 06/27E 0.91 0.97 6 1.05

risk for WTC, assuming other large freight forwarders also follow DSV and leave CW for 06/28E 1.17 1.23 5 1.40

in-house development. We see DSV as likely an isolated case given their acquired Tango

through Schenker, which gave them the optionality of entertaining in-house Lucy Huang

development. Industry feedback suggests a global FF building an in-house from scratch Analyst

lucy.huang@ubs.com

could cost around $2-300m and at least 5-7yrs, with/without AI as integration/

+61-2-9324 2253

ecosystem/regulation complexities cannot purely be coded through AI. Further, ongoing

maintenance costs for updating a global freight forwarding system appear to be Ailsa Lei

expensive, with commentary from the likes of Kuehne+Nagel and ex-Schenker experts Analyst

ailsa.lei@ubs.com

suggesting "no less than 1000 people" needed in IT to support ongoing software

+61-2-9324 3181

development/maintenance. However, this risk could emerge if LGFFs acquire FF who

already own good in-house solutions. For small-mid sized forwarders, we see

displacement risk low given less resource to invest in-house.

Valuation: DCF based PT $67/sh unchanged

Our DCF based PT remains unchanged. We reiterate Buy on WTC as market appears to

be pricing in a"grey sky" scenario, whilst we remain positive around the broader

defensive moat that WTC has against AI. WTC is trading on 22x FY27e EBITDA-capex for

27% CAGR, 0.8x growth adjusted which we view attractive relative to: i) global SaaS