First Read: Daily Commodities Note "No progress on Iran peace deal" Shaw

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "No progress on Iran peace deal" Shaw

1Q: Plenty of catalysts to come in 2H26. 1Q26

results beat consensus & Barrick reiterated FY26 production & cost guidance. Barrick has

not performed well against guidance in recent years, but we believe 2026 guidance is

conservative and although it is too early to say guidance is 'in the bag' after just one

quarter; in our view operational performance (particularly at NGM) was encouraging.

1Q unit costs were at/below the low end of guidance in what is expected to be the

weakest production quarter; in our view this puts B in a good position to deliver against

2026 guidance despite energy cost pressures. B announced a $3bn buyback program

on-top of its 50% FCF dividend commitment and is progressing towards the IPO of NA

Gold in 2H26. Although B's investment case remains complex; valuation is

undemanding, we expect more catalysts in 2H26 and we see attractive risk vs reward

after underperformance vs gold peers YTD. Link to note. Source: UBS.

China Lithium - Further upgrade. UBS's Global Commodity team has raised its global

lithium price assumption, primarily reflecting: 1) UBS's increasingly positive view on BESS

demand; 2) higher EV demand due to higher energy prices amid the Middle East

conflict; and 3) accelerating e-Truck demand in China. In its base case, UBS forecasts

2026E global lithium demand to rise 16% YoY to 1.97mt LCE. This assumes demand

from EV batteries (53% of total demand) increases 12% YoY and demand from ESS

batteries (17% of total demand) grows 60% YoY. UBS expects 2026E global risk-

weighted supply to grow around 13% to 1.91mt LCE (including recycling), resulting in a

deficit of 65kt LCE. We raise our 2026 forecast of China's average lithium carbonate