First Read: NKT A/S "1Q26 First Take: Small miss on Transmission" (Sell) Leonard

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: NKT A/S "1Q26 First Take: Small miss on Transmission" (Sell) Leonard

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation -49.7%

Forecast dividend yield 0.0%

Forecast stock return -49.7%

Market return assumption 7.3%

Forecast excess return -57.0%

Company Description

NKT is a global player in the cables industry with the highest focus on the high-voltage

segment, and is building the largest high-voltage sites globally at Karlskrona (Sweden). The

business units consist of Solutions (focuses on land and submarine HV), Applications

(business is mainly split between MV and LV cables), and Services and Accessories, which

provides repair work across the portfolio.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

The risks associated with our Sell rating on NKT include: 1) lower ramp-up cost headwinds

than we forecast in Solutions, enabling higher margin growth, 2) subcontracting revenue

headwinds are not as high as we forecast in 2025, 3) NKT takes on further debt to for more

bolt-on acquisitions, 4) the Karlskrona capex outlay comes in below the budget ~€1bn. Our

12m price target is set by using a SOTP with 12m forward target EV/EBIT multiples across the

divisions, where we leverage peer Group multiples across the different end market exposures.

Nexans: Our 12m price target is set by using a SOTP with 12m forward target EV/EBIT

multiples across the divisions, where we leverage peer group multiples across the different

end market exposures. The key risks we see to our Buy rating and investment case on Nexans,

include: 1) contract cancellations or delays to key, high-margin projects such as Great Sea

Interconnect, which we estimate could reduce our fair value for Nexans by ~15%; 2) if legacy

low-margin, high-voltage projects do not reduce to 2027 to be below 10% of Transmission