Canada Goose Holdings Inc "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a..."

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Canada Goose Holdings Inc "UBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a..."

Powered by Lab Global13 MayResearch2026ab Evidence UBS YES

Canada Goose Holdings Inc Equities

AmericasUBS Evidence Lab inside: 4Q Preview: We See a

Balanced Upside/Downside Skew Retailers, Apparel

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target US$12.00We doubt Street EPS estimates or sentiment move much:

We anticipate GOOS gives FY27 EPS guidance which brackets the consensus view. We

believe this should not only cause Street EPS estimates to stay near current levels, but Price (12 May 2026) US$10.95

also keep sentiment essentially unchanged. The upside risk is GOOS's 4Q result may RIC: GOOS.N BBG: GOOS US

surprise to the upside, giving the company a higher base off which to guide FY27,

leading to an above-consensus outlook. The downside risks are: 1) GOOS may not issue Trading data and key metrics

FY27 guidance given it hasn’t issued a full year outlook since FY25; and 2) the current 52-wk range US$15.24-8.92

macro environment may cause GOOS to guide more conservatively than we anticipate. Market cap. US$1.07b

The stock typically moves +/- 11.7% over earnings. We see a wide range of potential vol Shares o/s 98.2m (COM)

outcomes. Free float 45%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 110

We believe sentiment leans slightly bearish: Avg. daily value (m) US$1.3

UBS Quant Team's data shows GOOS' crowding score is modestly below the industry Common s/h equity (03/26E) C$0.52b

avg. (Figure 6Last3monthsview:AsofMay1th,GOS'CrowdingScoreis1.7,belowthetheSoftlines5.0avg.). The stock is also down 15.4% YTD vs. the S&P 500's +8% move. At the P/BV (03/26E) 2.8x

same time, GOOS' FY2 P/E multiple is roughly 1-turn above its past 3-yr. average. Net debt to EBITDA (03/26E) 0.4x