Dynatrace Holdings LLC "ARR a Bit Light, FY27 Guide a Bit Optimistic" (Neutral)

研报英文原文证据摘录

Dynatrace Holdings LLC "ARR a Bit Light, FY27 Guide a Bit Optimistic" (Neutral)

03/27E

the outlook for an acceleration in total ARR (we were modeling stable ~16%) as well as From To % ch Cons.

net new ARR growth (which is expected to be 1H-weighted) that Dynatrace pinned on a Q1E 0.49 0.45 -7 0.45

strong pipeline, a continued logs pull-through and tailwinds from customer AI Q2E 0.53 0.52 -2 0.48

deployment as well as a healthy overall cloud infra market. Q3E 0.53 0.53 -1 0.50

Q4E 0.51 0.51 -0 0.48

Our Take on the Readthrough 03/27E 2.06 2.00 -3 1.91

Into the print, Dynatrace shares have materially out-performed the overall software 03/28E 2.42 2.38 -2 2.22

market (-10% YTD compared to -27% for the broader sector) and the strong 1Q26 03/29E 2.77 2.74 -1 2.57

Datadog print likely lifted hopes for a larger beat. In the end, the results were “fine” but Karl Keirstead

lacked the upside that we saw from Datadog. The direct Datadog compare may be too Analyst

demanding, as Datadog results are far more tethered to AI-native hyper-growth as well karl.keirstead@ubs.com

as on-prem to cloud migration activity relative to a more on-prem-focused Dynatrace. +1-310-734 2455

Dean Marriott

Valuation: Associate Analyst

At 16x CY26E FCF (and 18x non-GAAP EPS) for a mid-teens revs growth profile and dean.marriott@ubs.com

slightly improving margins, valuation seems reasonable but in our view not yet +1-212-713 2115

compelling. Given these results we’re trimming our PT from $40 to $36, based on a

CY27E EV/FCF multiple of 14x, a discount to the comp group.

Highlights (US$m) 03/24 03/25 03/26 03/27E 03/28E 03/29E 03/30E 03/31E

Revenues 1,431 1,699 2,018 2,349 2,705 3,077 3,455 3,848

EBIT (UBS) 398 494 592 695 834 973 1,120 1,278

Net earnings (UBS) 358 422 518 606 732 858 987 1,123