North American Oil & Gas "The Gas Digest – EIA's May STEO Further Lowers..."

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North American Oil & Gas "The Gas Digest – EIA's May STEO Further Lowers..."

Global Research

13 May 2026ab

North American Oil & Gas Equities

AmericasThe Gas Digest – EIA's May STEO Further Lowers

HHUB Price Forecast Energy

Josh Silverstein

Analyst

josh.silverstein@ubs.com

EIA's May STEO Lowers 2026 Forecast Further +1-212-713 3513

This week, the EIA released its May update for its Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO). The Peyton Dorne

downward trend for EIA's Henry Hub gas price forecasts continued with this Analyst

STEO update, with 2026 Henry Hub prices now projected to average $3.50/mmbtu. This peyton.dorne@ubs.com

represents a 5% decline from the $3.67/mmbtu forecast as of the April update and is +1-212-713 4359

down 19% vs. the March update's $4.31/mmbtu projection. The EIA pointed to the rise William Barber

in production YTD, which has resulted in above-average storage injections, as we Associate Analyst

highlighted in our April 29th Gas Digest note. Following the 1Q26 reporting season, william.barber@ubs.com

when the gas price surge in the period drove excess FCF generation and enabled +1-212-713 5553

significant B/S for many gas E&Ps, we see the new forecast reinforcing that such over- Nayoung Kim

earning is unlikely to be replicated this year, with comparatively more modest excess FCF Analyst

generated. nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

Additional Highlights From EIA's May STEO:

2027 Price Forecast. EIA made a sharper cut to its forecast for 2027 Henry Hub

gas prices, which it now expects to average $3.18/mmbtu, almost 10% below the

current ~$3.50/mmbtu 2027 Henry Hub NYMEX Strip. The new forecast is down

11% from April's $3.59/mmbtu outlook and 15% below March's $3.75/mmbtu

projection, underscoring the sharp change in forward expectations as injection