ACEA (AO) | Buy | Q1 results support our above-guidance estimates

研报英文原文证据摘录

ACEA (AO) | Buy | Q1 results support our above-guidance estimates

ACEA Buy | Target Price: EUR26.50

Main takeaways from conference call and recent newsflow

2026 guidance. As expected, ACEA confirmed its guidance, which assumes a +6% water tariff increase and zero premium (as

usual), excludes the results from ACEA Energia reclassified as “Discontinued Operations” and includes Aquanexa’s contribution,

assuming consolidation as of Q2 2026. EBITDA is guided to grow by +3%/+5% compared with the 2025 restated figure of

EUR1,365m (restated by EUR20m of non-recurring items, excluding the contribution from the HV grid during

9M2025, the photovoltaic business sold in 2025 and Publiacqua for EUR35m). The EBITDA range is thus EUR1,406-1,433m,

compared with our current forecast of EUR1,449m (still above the analyst's consensus, which has recently increased). As usual,

we think the management released too prudent guidance, but we are used to this. The investments are guided at EUR1.2bn net of

grants (in line), for a net Debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.5/3.6x. assuming no cash-in of Publiacqua (see later), and a neutral effect from

NWC.

CEO confirmed. Ahead of ACEA’s shareholders' meeting scheduled for 3 June, also convened to renew the Board of Directors,

Roma Capitale, the controlling shareholder with a 51% stake, has announced the names of its slate. The candidate list for the new

Board of Directors includes Alessandro Rivera, designated Executive Chairman, Fabrizio Palermo, who will be confirmed as Chief

Executive Officer, as well as Barbara Marinali, Angelo Piazza, Luisa Melara, Elisabetta Maggini, Nathalie Tocci, Alessandro Picardi,

Alessandra Bucci, and Simone Silvi as Directors. We welcome this news, as Mr Palermo has served as ACEA’s CEO since September