National Vision: 1Q26: Ticket benefit from premiumization offsets replatforming traffic pressure

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National Vision: 1Q26: Ticket benefit from premiumization offsets replatforming traffic pressure

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National Vision

1Q26: Ticket benefit from premiumization

offsets replatforming traffic pressure

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 30.00 USD | Price: 16.92 USD

Ticket strength offset by LSD% traffic decline 13 May 2026

EYE reported 1Q adj. EPS of $0.45 (vs. Street $0.44 and BofAe $0.42) on 4.5% adj. Equity

comps (below Street 5.2% and BofAe 5.3%), reflecting comp growth of 4.4% at AB and

5.2% at EGW. Average ticket increased 5.1%, and traffic declined 1.2% as growth in

Key Changesmanaged care cohort offset softness in cash pay consumers. GM contracted 10bp to

59.7% due to product mix, partially offset by leveraging optometrist-related costs. Adj. (US$) Previous Current

SG&A leveraged 200bp from lower associate-related expenses and advertising. Price Obj. 35.00 30.00

2026E Rev (m) 2,066.6 2,068.1

Premiumization and segmentation drives ticket growth 2027E Rev (m) 2,203.1 2,196.0

We now model 2026E EPS of $0.96 (vs. guidance of $0.85-$1.09) on 3.8% comps 2028E Rev (m) 2,361.5 2,351.2

(lowered from 4.6%) and expect average ticket growth supported by premiumization, 2026E EPS 0.94 0.96

segmentation and momentum with Meta glasses, but 2Q comps should be pressured by 2028E EPS 1.35 1.34

lingering replatforming traffic impact. We model $217mn adj. EBITDA, driven by SG&A

leverage from the multi-year cost savings plan, and we expect flattish gross margin Robert F. Ohmes, CFA

(premium products gross profit dollar accretive but margin dilutive). Research Analyst BofAS

+1 646 855 0078

robert.ohmes@bofa.comReplatforming disrupts traffic but helps e-commerce LT

The replatforming of AB at the start of 2Q has disrupted traffic and exam volume as Vicky Liu, CFA

Research Analyst