PT Telkom: 4Q25 results: adjusted numbers broadly in line; ARPU momentum improving

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PT Telkom: 4Q25 results: adjusted numbers broadly in line; ARPU momentum improving

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PT Telkom

4Q25 results: adjusted numbers broadly in

line; ARPU momentum improving

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 4,000 IDR | Price: 2,950 IDR

Broadly in-line and FY26 guidance looks encouraging 13 May 2026

Telkom’s 4Q25 revenues increased 1% QoQ (+1% YoY), coming 3% below our estimates, Equity

led by stronger‑than‑expected Data revenue growth (+13% QoQ; +6% vs est.), offset by

continued weakness in legacy cellular and other telecom services. EBITDA declined 2%

Key ChangesQoQ, missing our estimates by 8%, with margins at 48.1% (BofAe 50.8%), largely

reflecting higher ERP related personnel costs, partly offset by disciplined S&M and IC (Rp) Previous Current

expenses. Adjusted net income rose a strong 30% QoQ, albeit 6% below our estimate, 2025E Rev (m) 147,754,592 146,742,000

supported by operating leverage and a materially lower tax charge. On the mobile front, 2026E Rev (m) 154,108,393 154,768,088

i) Telkomsel subscribers declined 1.0% QoQ, consistent with quality‑led churn clean‑up, 2027E Rev (m) 161,369,750 161,791,111

while ii) blended ARPU improved 4% QoQ to IDR45k, underscoring pricing discipline and 2025E EPS 224.9 178.0

improving customer quality, with exit ARPU higher at IDR47k. IndiHome B2C subscribers 2026E EPS 256.4 243.7

grew 1% QoQ, though ARPU declined 3% QoQ amid competitive intensity. Management 2027E EPS 272.9 260.2

introduced FY26 guidance: i) 1–3% revenue growth, ii) normalized EBITDA margins

>50%, and iii) capex‑to‑revenue of 17–19%, signaling improving earnings quality. Sukriti Bansal >> Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Singapore)

+65 6678 0454Adjustments create some noise but cash economics intact sukriti.bansal@bofa.com