Global Energy Weekly: EU gas and carbon break up

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Global Energy Weekly: EU gas and carbon break up

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Global Energy Weekly

EU gas and carbon break up

We lower TTF targets on mild weather, high renewables 12 May 2026

Reduced LNG supplies from Qatar have not led to the major rally in European natural gas Commodities

prices that we feared two months ago. There are a number of reasons for this, including Global

mild temperatures, strong nuclear and renewable power generation, and fast growing Global Commodity Research

North American LNG supplies. Still, Qatari gas used to go to Asia and the pull from the BofA Europe (Madrid)

Pacific for Atlantic Basin cargoes means that NWE gas imports are now declining. With Francisco Blanch

European natural gas stocks at very low levels but a more flexible EU government fill Commodity & Deriv Strategist BofA Europe (Madrid)

mandate, TTF prices have underperformed oil. Thus, we adjust our EU TTF natural gas +34 91 514 3070

price forecasts down to €55/MWh for 2026 and €35/MWh for 2027, from €75/MWh and Clifton White

€50/MWh respectively. Even then, the weather gods (see Grains & sugar: clear casualties CommodityBofAS Strategist

of El Niño) and Hormuz remain key upside risks, so we also introduce an extended clifton.white@bofa.com

blockade and a war escalation scenario to match our oil views (see Call me, maybe). Rachel Wiser

Commodity Strategist

EU carbon prices have stayed very volatile since January… BofAS+1 646 743 4069

On a related topic, we note that EU carbon allowance (EUA) price volatility during the Michael Widmer

first quarter has been pretty exceptional. Prices hit a high point for the year of €91/t in CommodityMLI (UK) Strategist

January as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into play. EUAs then +44 20 7996 0694