Nutrien: Share pullback creates enhanced opportunity in NTR

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Nutrien: Share pullback creates enhanced opportunity in NTR

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Nutrien

Share pullback creates enhanced

opportunity in NTR

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 83.00 USD | Price: 71.29 USD

Sell off is curious, shares still attractive 12 May 2026

At $1.11bn in reported 1Q adj EBITDA, NTR’s earnings were effectively in line, while Equity

shipment guidance was reiterated. Given most of the improved market fundamentals

occurred late into 1Q, this shouldn’t be too surprising. Yet, shares have been curiously

Key Changesweak, -7% on the day (though shares have rallied to -3.6% since). The tape didn’t help,

with the market responding to conjecture of pending Iranian peace. That said, NTR (US$) Previous Current

shares have not benefitted from the conflict outbreak, despite the material tailwinds it Price Obj. 82.00 83.00

represents to its business. This is part of the reason we upgraded shares to Buy on April 2026E Rev (m) 28,311.3 29,163.8

30 (see our upgrade note). Admittedly, if the Strait of Hormuz opens quickly in the 2027E Rev (m) 27,306.6 28,235.5

coming days, it would be negative for NTR’s nitrogen fundamentals. Though, the market 2028E Rev (m) 27,451.3 28,287.3

is running up against a clock to move nutrients in time for India and Brazil planting, and 2026E EPS 6.30 6.45

we see risk growing of a more bullish ag market in 2027 should yields suffer accordingly. 2027E EPS 3.85 4.21

NTR is an attractive stock against this backdrop, and we reiterate Buy. 2028E EPS 3.49 3.87

Incremental takeaways from the conference call Matthew DeYoe, CFA

Research Analyst

1) NTR believes China urea exports could fall to 3-4mn mt, down from ~5mn mt in 2025. BofAS

2) Not seeing US farmers switch from corn to beans despite relative economics. 3) +1 646 855 5746 matthew.deyoe@bofa.com