Adecoagro: Fertilizer division supporting 1Q26 results; weak Ag. prices remains a headwind

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Adecoagro: Fertilizer division supporting 1Q26 results; weak Ag. prices remains a headwind

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Adecoagro

Fertilizer division supporting 1Q26 results;

weak Ag. prices remains a headwind

Maintain Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 14.10 USD | Price: 13.49 USD

1Q26: better trajectory; but stock upside is limited 11 May 2026

Adecoagro released 1Q26 results on a better trajectory with adj. EBITDA of US$85.8mn. Equity

The company delivered an assertive strategy to monetize its carry-over ethanol

inventories, while maximizing its mix towards ethanol amid higher prices. In addition, it Isabella Simonato >>

is capturing the spike in urea prices with an upside trend looking forward, while fixed Research Analyst

Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

natural gas costs supports margins expansion. Finally, reported yields for 2025/26 crops +55 11 2188 4243

were better than expected. We fine-tune our estimates to incorporate higher yields, isabella.simonato@bofa.com

updated hedges position and stronger BRL. We maintain our Neutral rating on limited Julia Zaniolo >>

Research Analyst

further upside potential. Merrill Lynch (Brazil)

+55 11 2188 4367

Capturing higher urea prices, fully converted into EBITDA julia.zaniolo@bofa.com

Fernando Olvera >>

Profertil was a winner in the urea price spike resulted from the Iran conflict, started in Research Analyst

March. The company has sales contracts, in which prices are adjusted weekly, while its Merrill Lynch (Mexico) +52 55 5201 3473

main production cost (natural gas) is fixed in a long-term contract. As a result, it has folvera@bofa.com

been able to capture strong spot prices, almost fully converting top-line into EBITDA. In

1Q26, volumes already increased 50.4%YoY (compared to the company’s reported pro-

forma) and prices +16.2%YoY.