CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG IN) Buy: Performance exceeding expectations

研报英文原文证据摘录

CreditAccess Grameen (CREDAG IN) Buy: Performance exceeding expectations

gwill (%) 10.5 18.7 18.6 18.5

Management guidance conservative for FY27, but fundamentals look strong:

52-WEEK PRICE (INR)Management guided for NIM of 12.8-13.2% (14.2% in 4QFY26), supported by the

pickup in MFI loans. In FY27, we estimate an average NIM of c13.8%, much higher 1800.00

than guidance. The cost to income ratio guidance of 33-35% (c32.5% in FY26) factors 1400.00

in the impact of the volatile economic environment. Credit cost should also normalise

hereon. We estimate ROA of c4.6% (on the higher side of management guidance). We 05/25 11/25 05/261000.00

expect CREDAG to deliver c44% EPS CAGR over FY26-29e (vs AUM CAGR of 23%). TargetHigh: 1523.70price: 1710.00Low: 1101.20 Current: 1480.80

Raise FY27-28e EPS by 3.0-10.3%: We increase our AUM CAGR estimates to 23% Source: LSEG IBES, HSBC estimates

over FY26-29e (from 15% over FY26-28e), factoring in the pickup in MFI

disbursements. We lower margins for FY28e, factoring the shift in product mix towards Abhishek Murarka*

Senior Analyst, India Financials

new businesses. We also lower our cost to income estimates, reflecting better cost HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

control, enhanced branch productivity and higher loan growth. Our credit cost estimate abhishek.murarka@hsbc.co.in

+91 73049 07567

remains largely unchanged, leading to an increase in EPS estimates by 10.3/3.0% in

Rahil Shah*

FY27/28e. We expect CREDAG to deliver average ROA of 4.5% and ROE of c16% Analyst, India Financials

over FY27-29e. We introduce our FY29 estimates in this report. HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited

rahil.shah@hsbc.co.in

Management commentary: Management guided for FY27 AUM growth of 20-25% +91 22 6628 3719