VODAFONE GROUP : 4Q26 Conf. Call Feedback

研报英文原文证据摘录

VODAFONE GROUP : 4Q26 Conf. Call Feedback

EQUITIES

TELECOM OPERATORS

VODAFONE GROUP UNDERPERFORMPRICE* 120p  TARGET PRICE 95p (DOWNSIDE 21%)

VODAFONE GROUP ADR UNDERPERFORMPRICE* USD16.3  TARGET PRICE USD10.5 (DOWNSIDE 36%)

FLASH NOTE

4Q26 Conf. Call Feedback

12 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 11:57* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Joshua Mills, CFA BNP Paribas London Branch (+44) 203 430 8670 Joshua.Mills@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

The Vodafone FY26 conference call has just concluded with shares now -5.3%. This is worse than we had expected this

morning, and is manly driven by the weaker German EBITDAaL outlook and commentary – this is something we

explored in detail in our recent deep dive report Vodafone: Some improvements, but still a tough road ahead – this

leverages new analysis from our STAMP 2026 consumer survey and pricing analysis.

1) German outlook remains challenging – we do not expect EBITDAaL to stabilise mid term: After solid

Vodacom results/ guidance yesterday, the main disappointment with today’s results was the weaker European

EBITDA outlook and Germany financial/ net add trends in particular. Vodafone confirmed during the call that they

expect German EBITDAaL to decline in FY27 (vs. cons expectations of +1% growth) and would not commit to a

specific timeline on when this should stabilise. Given that FY27 will still see some tailwinds from 1&1 wholesale

revenues (BNPP estimate +1ppt boost to EBITDA) this is disappointing in our view – and we forecast -3%

reported/ -4% underlying German EBITDAaL growth in FY27. Vodafone also highlighted that the German mobile

market remains challenging, and during the call called out increased competition at the low end of the broadband

market as well.