MUNICH RE : Q1 2026 results: Turning down the volume

研报英文原文证据摘录

MUNICH RE : Q1 2026 results: Turning down the volume

EQUITIES

INSURANCE

MUNICH RE OUTPERFORMPRICE* EUR499.3  TARGET PRICE EUR600 (UPSIDE 20%)

MUNICH RE ADR OUTPERFORMPRICE* USD11.6  TARGET PRICE USD14 (UPSIDE 20%)

FLASH NOTE

Q1 2026 results: Turning down the volume

12 MAY 2026 Securities Research Report Production time: 07:23* (London time)

Research Analyst & Publishing Entities

Iain Pearce BNP Paribas London Branch +44 7435 660 628 iain.pearce@uk.bnpparibas.com

What happened?

Munich Re’s Q1 2026 results were in line with expectations on a net income basis. But we doubt that where investors

will be looking. After a disappointing 1.1 renewal, the 1.4 renewal has resulted in an even bigger volume decline. Pricing

was slightly better than our expectation, but the -18.5% volume change is eye watering. Given insurance revenue

misses in 2025 and the 1.1 renewal volume decline, we would expect a material negative to this news alone.

BNPP View:

- Renewals – Turn down the volume: The renewal narrative will dominate these results. The -18.5% volume

decline is significantly worse than expected and comes on the back of a disappointing 1.1. renewal which saw

volume decline by -6%. The company has stated that the reduction was led by rigorous portfolio management, in

particular with a reduction in QS business which has a limited impact on bottom line. However, with such sizable

reductions at both 1.1 and 1.4, it is very difficult to see how this will not have some bottom-line impact.

- Insurance revenue guidance maintained, for now: The company has not cut its insurance revenue guidance,

which again, is difficult to comprehend. Munich Re achieved a €15bn insurance revenue in Q1 (-6% behind cons,

-6% behind BNPP). The run-rate implies a €60bn FY 2026 insurance revenue.