Allegro.eu SA: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Allegro.eu SA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Allegro.eu SA (ALEP.WA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Active Buyers (m) 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9

GMV per Active (PLN) 3,388 3,713 3,990 4,280

Items sold (m) 1,474 1,652 1,755 1,847

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Competitor price strategies RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Online penetration rate Faster growth in online penetration

Take rates Macro improvement Sales / 13,190

Competitive pressures easing Revenue 12,168 14,616

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Successful fulfilment strategy at reducing the (PLN, mn) 13,231

cost of delivery

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

EBITDA 100% Europe ex UK Increased competition from Amazon/Temu/AI 3,263 3,996

(PLN, mn)

Faster deceleration in market growth than 3,788

expected

Greater margin pressure than expected

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate 2,937

Low return on investment on capex EBITView explanation of regional hierarchies here 2,288 3,276

2,770

OWNERSHIP POSITIONINGMS ALPHA MODELS

Inst. Owners, % Active 67.6%

EPS 3 Month 5/5 1.40 2.24 HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.6x (PLN) Horizon MOST 1.95

HF Sector Net Exposure 7.7%

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Quintile exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3