Poste Italiane SpA: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Poste Italiane SpA: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Poste Italiane SpA (PST.MI)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Insurance Liabilites Growth (%) 3.0 NA NA NA

Life Operating Profit/Insurance

0.9 NA NA NA

Liabilities (%)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Growth in parcels revenues RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2027e

Interest rate and Italian sovereign spread Growth momentum in parcels continuing 2.01 movements, driving NII Management looking to extract value from its EPS

New business growth in Insurance Payments business (€) 1.87 2.11

1.98 Rising interest rates in Italy would benefit

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE earnings in Insurance and Financial Services

1.40

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE DPS

1.27 1.55

Sharp decline in interest rate could impact (€) 1.41

100% Europe ex UK Solvency capital and earnings power

Parcels growth declining would imply net

decline in revenues in Mail & Parcels 2,602 Net income

2,443 2,746

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate (€, mn)

2,574View explanation of regional hierarchies here OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Inst. Owners, % Active 55% Mean Morgan Stanley EstimatesMS ALPHA MODELS

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2.2x Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

2/5 3 Month HF Sector Net Exposure 18.8%

MOST Horizon

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

Quintile trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3