Land Securities: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Land Securities: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Land Securities (LAND.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

10 Jul 2026 - 14

Yield shift (bp) NA 6 (5) (4) Land Securities Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting

Jul 2026

Rental value growth (%) NA 3 3 3

Capital Value Change (%), ex devt 1 2 3 3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Rental and capital value trajectory in London RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2028e

office, retail and leisure Inflation concerns dissipate. 55.9 Currency and demand for UK exposure Portfolio valuation starts to recover and EPS

New CEO action to adjust the group's business demand returns, the stock re-rates. (p) 51.0 59.8

model and subsector exposure 55.3

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Inflation shock drives higher bond yields and 43.7GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE DPS also property yields. 40.4 47.2

Challenges in private credit markets reduce (p) 44.3

capital availability for capital-intensive

100% UK businesses such as real estate.

Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 59%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 1%

2/5 3 Month Refinitiv;exposuresMSPBheld withContent.MSPB.IncludesInformationcertainmayhedgebe fund

MOST Horizon inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / ShortSource: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For athe highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /Quintile