SES: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

SES: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – SES (SESFd.PA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

MW KEI (%) 31.3 36.1 (0.4) 1.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Media business highly challenged. RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Networks has pricing pressure from Revenue shift towards Networks, which

competition. delivers higher than expected growth from Sales / 3,576

C-band clearance proceeds to potentially offer O3bMPower/SES-17, but is lower margin. Revenue 3,355 3,718

special shareholder returns and/ or C-band special returns and options in RoW. (€, mn) 3,475

deleveraging.

Integration of Intelsat acquisition. RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

Video produces the bulk of cash flow, but is in 1,563

EBITDA

structural decline. Networks potentially 992 1,672GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE (€, mn)

challenged by LEO constellations. 1,447

More capex is needed to compete in the

10-20% UK mobility markets.

30-40% North America Net income

(139) 353

50-60% Europe ex UK OWNERSHIP POSITIONING (€, mn) 68

Inst. Owners, % Active 61.6%Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.8x EPS

(0.33) 1.02

HF Sector Net Exposure 4.7% (€) 0.20MS ALPHA MODELS

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

1/5 3 Month exposuresinconsistentheldwithwithor mayMSPB.notInformationreflect broadermay bemarket Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

MOST Horizon trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).