Banca Mediolanum Model update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Banca Mediolanum Model update

Enrico Bolzoni, CFA AC Europe Equity Research

(44 20) 7134-4222 14 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

enrico.bolzoni@jpmorgan.com

Price Performance Summary Investment Thesis and Valuation

Investment Thesis

Mediolanum offers great exposure to the attractive Italian

Financial Advisory market thanks to its impressive resilience in

flows across multiple phases of the market cycle, growing

market share, and successful commercial initiatives.

Mediolanum AUM has grown faster than peers in recent years

and, most notably, with an above-industry average proportion of

equity investments, which typically results in higher margins.

Most notably, Mediolanum AUM net flows have been stronger

than peers in every single year since 2017 and in 2024 were the

YTD 1m 3m 12m strongest in the industry.

Abs -1.3% 2.4% 10.0% 32.5%

Rel -11.4% -1.7% 1.1% 9.1% We expect Mediolanum to continue to grow strongly, leveraging

the relationship of trust formed between advisers and clients,

Company Data and benefitting from the strong secular tailwinds that are

Shares O/S (mn) 744 unfolding for the Italian private savings market.

52-week range (€) 20.68-13.91

Market cap ($ mn) 17,224.07 Valuation

Exchange rate 0.85

Free float (%) 33.9% We value Mediolanum using a combination of DCF and SOTP

3M ADV (mn) 1.62 multiple approaches. For our DCF, we use a CAPM-derived

3M ADV ($ mn) 33.9 weighted average cost of capital of ~12%, and a terminal growth

Volatility (90 Day) 32

Index FTSE MIB rate assumption of 3%. For the SOTP, we separately value the

BBG ANR (Buy | Hold | Sell) 9|4|0 Banking business from the Asset Management and Insurance

business, assigning PAT multiples of 10x and 15x, respectively.

Key Metrics (FYE Dec)

With the DCF and SOTP valuations, we obtain fair values of €21