Braskem Model Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Braskem Model Update

Milene Clifford Carvalho AC Latin America Equity Research

(55-11) 4950-3475 14 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

milene.carvalho@jpmorgan.com

Investment Thesis, Valuation and Risks

Braskem (Overweight; Price Target: R$15.00)

Investment Thesis

We have an OW rating on Braskem with Dec 2026 price target of R$15.00/share for

BRKM5 and of $5.50/sh for BAK. Braskem’s 2025 performance reflected significant

margin pressure, ongoing cash consumption, and rising leverage, all indicative of persistent

industry headwinds. Nonetheless, recent changes in global market conditions and logistics

constraints in the Middle East have tightened petrochemical supply, supporting higher

operating rates and improved profitability. We have adjusted our estimates to reflect recent

trends and adopt a more constructive view towards the company’s governance improvement

post-restructuring, meriting an OW rating for the company.

Valuation

We value Braskem based on DCF (100%). In the DCF valuation, the cash flows are

discounted at a WACC of 12.2% . The cost of equity comprises a beta of 1.5x, a risk-free

rate of 4.2%, a country risk of 2.6%, an equity risk premium of 5.5% and an inflation

differential of 1.5%. That yields a Dec 2026 price target of R$15.00/share.

Risks to Rating and Price Target

Demand Disappointment. One of the main challenges in the petrochemicals industry has

been weaker-than-expected demand. If demand for PE and PP decelerates further, spreads

could compress beyond our current assumptions, presenting downside risk to our fair value

estimate.

PE and PP Supply. Prior to the Middle East conflict, the petrochemical sector faced

pressured spreads and an oversupplied market, weighing on Braskem’s profitability. If PE