James Hardie Industries PLC 4QFY26 Preview: Peering into 1QFY27 through D.R. Horton

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James Hardie Industries PLC 4QFY26 Preview: Peering into 1QFY27 through D.R. Horton

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

14 May 2026

James Hardie Industries PLC Overweight

JHX.AX, JHX AU

4QFY26 Preview: Peering into 1QFY27 through D.R. Price (14 May 26):A$27.03

Horton ▼Price Target (May-27):A$39.00 Prior (Dec-26):A$41.50

JHX shares are down 12% CYTD (ASX 200 -1%) as the Middle East conflict and

broader US macro uncertainy/negative sentiment has heightened fears around a Australia

softening forward outlook and potential 1QFY27/FY27 earnings miss. We view Australia Industrials

these concerns as unfounded. The outlook remains underpinned by: 1) 1QFY27 AC Lee Power

supported by a combination of synergies, manufacturing cost savings, falling pulp (61-2) 9003-8725

prices and exposure to larger homebuilders – noting the strong relationship lee.power@jpmorgan.com

between D.R. Horton starts (+38%, see Figure 3D.R.Hortonquarterlystarts(1Qlaged)vs.JHXLFLSiding&Trimvolumes) and JHX siding volumes; 2) FY27 Dylan Adrian

bridge to consensus/JPMe EBITDA achievable even with volumes flat/-1%; and (61-2) 9003-7397

3) share price support from technical buying should JHX file a 10-K, potentially dylan.adrian@jpmorgan.com

enabling broader US index inclusion (which we believe will occur). While we Nick Torelli

acknowledge risks around JHX’s trading linkage to US peers, we see the downside (61-4) 6817-5219

as capped with the stock (which we view as higher quality) trading at a historically nick.torelli@jpmorgan.com

deep 8.4pt 12-month forward P/E discount to Trex/LPX. We reiterate our J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

Overweight rating and lower our PT to A$39/sh on modestly lower earnings.

Key Changes (FYE Mar)