Brookdale Senior Living Inc.: 1Q26 Model Update: G&A, RevPAR Expected to Drive 2H EBITDA Back to Mid-Teens Growth

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Brookdale Senior Living Inc.: 1Q26 Model Update: G&A, RevPAR Expected to Drive 2H EBITDA Back to Mid-Teens Growth

Equity Research

U.S. Healthcare Facilities & Managed Care

13 May 2026

Brookdale Senior Living Inc.

1Q26 Model Update: G&A, RevPAR

Expected to Drive 2H EBITDA Back

BKD OVERWEIGHTto Mid-Teens Growth

Unchanged

While weather and dispositions have created noise in U.S. Healthcare Facilities & NEUTRAL Managed Care

Unchangedquarterly comparisons and progression, we think the broader

backdrop and underlying investment thesis remain intact. Price Target USD 18.00 Unchanged

Price (12-May-26) USD 12.98

EBITDA Progression: Following softer-than-expected 1Q results and an in-line 2Q guide, BKD Potential Upside/Downside +38.7%

now expects EBITDA growth to accelerate from low-to-mid single-digit growth in 2Q to mid- Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

teens growth in 2H, driven by planned G&A savings (about $5 mn) and higher-than-

usual RevPAR in 2H. Specifically, RevPOR is expected to decline in 2Q on a dollar basis, but Market Cap (USD mn) 3099

should stabilize in 2H, which is stronger than typical seasonality, which features sequential Shares Outstanding (mn) 238.79

quarterly declines. As a result, RevPAR is projected to increase from 8.2% in 1H to >9.2% in 2H, Free Float (%) 97.35

driven by anniversarying pricing concessions and planned dispositions. While weather and 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 3.5

dispositions have created noise in quarterly comparisons and earnings progression, we Dividend Yield (%) N/A

think the broader backdrop and underlying investment thesis remain intact. Return on Equity TTM (%) N/A

Current BVPS (USD) -0.23

Reiterate OW: Following 1Q results, we lower our 2026 and 2027 EBITDA estimates by $3 mn Source: Bloomberg

and $5 mn, respectively.