First Read: Daily Commodities Note "GFEX Lithium >RMB200k" Shaw

研报英文原文证据摘录

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "GFEX Lithium >RMB200k" Shaw

Key UBS Research

Franco-Nevada Corp - What's priced in for Cobre Panama? We reiterate our Buy

rating in FNV and believe the stock has one of the most attractive risk vs rewards within

precious metals equities offering near-term catalysts from progress towards the restart

of Cobre Panama that will drive superior earnings growth vs most mining peers that is

not priced in by the market. Before its forced closure in late 2023 Cobre Panama (CP)

accounted for ~30% of FNV GEO output and as a result of the closure group production

declined by ~20% in 2024/25 vs 2023. We acknowledge the pathway to restart CP

remains uncertain and progress has been slower than expected to so far; however in our

view a restart is the most likely outcome over the next 12mths and the probability of the

economics of FNV's stream being diluted is low. In our view the recent announcement

that First Quantum can start processing stockpiled ore is encouraging; the completion of

the integral audit in May and further engagement between First Quantum (FM) and the

Panamanian Government on finalizing revised fiscal terms should act as a positive

catalyst for FNV in the coming months. Link to note. Source: UBS.

Barrick Gold Corporation - Strong 1Q: Plenty of catalysts to come in 2H26. 1Q26

results beat consensus & Barrick reiterated FY26 production & cost guidance. Barrick has

not performed well against guidance in recent years, but we believe 2026 guidance is

conservative and although it is too early to say guidance is 'in the bag' after just one

quarter; in our view operational performance (particularly at NGM) was encouraging.

1Q unit costs were at/below the low end of guidance in what is expected to be the