CPU Industry Update "CQ1: Server CPU Above Seasonal While PC Below; INTC..."

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CPU Industry Update "CQ1: Server CPU Above Seasonal While PC Below; INTC..."

te Analyst

workloads with multiple sub-agents on one device. We believe INTC's server roadmap dino.weinstock@ubs.com

will likely become more competitive with introduction of Coral Rapids lineup, but also +1-212-713 3172

think INTC should benefit on the Client side as agentic workloads run locally catalyze

growth in the PC market over the medium-term.

PC CPU units 6% below seasonal; INTC continues to lose share

1Q26 total PC CPU shipments (desktop + mobile) declined 13% Q/Q - or 6 points below

5-yr median of -7% Q/Q - marking the second consecutive quarter of below-seasonal

growth and reflecting a 6% Y/Y decline. x86 desktop CPU units were down 26% Q/

Q (vs normal seasonal of -19% Q/Q), x86 notebook units were -7% Q/Q (vs normal

seasonal of -5% Q/Q), ARM desktop CPU units were +1% Q/Q, and ARM notebook

units were -11% Q/Q. On a unit basis, INTC gained 160bps of desktop market share Q/

Q (to 61.6%) but lost 160bps of notebook market share Q/Q (to 59.8%) despite early

Panther Lake ramp, resulting in blended share down 80bps to 60.2%. AMD gained

10bps of unit share (to 25.3%), and ARM gained 50bps of share (to 14.4%). The share

story was similar Q/Q on a revenue basis (Figure 11Intelvs.AMDx86PCOveralCPUMarketShare(Revenue)). Finally, both INTC and

AMD PC ASPs were up MSD% Q/Q - above normal seasonality of flattish Q/Q.

2026 Outlook for PC Units

UBS forecasts 2026 global PC units to decline ~11% Y/Y as memory price inflations lead

to demand destruction through the year. In particular, we think 1Q26 saw some pull-ins

ahead of further price increases, and expect it to be followed by sub-seasonal growth in

Q2 through Q4:26. As such, we model global PC shipments of ~242MM, with DT/NB

down ~13%/10% Y/Y.