Deutsche Bank (AO) | Hold | Feedback from CFO roadshow in Paris

研报英文原文证据摘录

Deutsche Bank (AO) | Hold | Feedback from CFO roadshow in Paris

rough in H1 2026. In Q1 2026, CB NII headwind from FX and NII margin compression is materially

lower from a QOQ perspective than from a YOY perspective, demonstrating that headwinds are abating. As hedges reset and the

year-on-year base turns favourable from Q3, the volume growth already being delivered (loans +6% YOY/+8% YOY ex FX,

fees/commissions +5% YOY ex FX) will flow directly to reported revenues. The CFO guided for a mid-single-digit YOY exit rate in Q4

2026.

Q1 CET1 at 13.8% was in the middle of the 13.5–14% operating range, not a miss. The step-up in RWAs was driven by four

largely non- recurring items: FX (c.EUR 2bn), op risk methodology (c.EUR 2bn of true-up in Q1 from Q4), market risk volatility

(c.EUR 2bn), and strategic FIC Financing deployment. The last of these was a voluntary decision that management does not plan

to repeat; the first three are mechanical.

Pension reform in Germany (not in any guidance) was described as the single biggest wildcard for the investment case.

Based on a survey conducted by DB and DWS, 83% of responders believe that statutory pension will not be sufficient, and many

would like to supplement their state pension with private schemes. If reform passes, DB is the structural beneficiary: a seamless

deposit-to-investment pipeline via the fully integrated Postbank platform, with DWS capturing the fund management fee.

Management is building the capability now rather than waiting for legislation.

In Asset gathering, the flywheel effect is accelerating product inflows, nearly matching the full 2025 inflows in just one quarter.

With investments in private bankers, clients' asset inflows should accelerate, providing opportunities to earn spread on deposits

or fees on AUM.