European Infrastructure: Recalibrating our traffic forecasts, focus still on FCF generation

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European Infrastructure: Recalibrating our traffic forecasts, focus still on FCF generation

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European Infrastructure

Recalibrating our traffic forecasts, focus

still on FCF generation

Industry Overview

Rethinking our traffic projections, prefer FER, FRA, FHZN 11 May 2026

We revisit our projections for road and airport traffic in European infra, amid elevated oil Equity

prices and concerns around jet fuel supply and rising airline ticket prices. We now model Pan European

weaker airport traffic trends from Q2’26 to Q4’26, but most of the volumes recovering European Infrastructure

by 2027E. We trim forecasts for European motorways earnings growth, but raise them Marcin Wojtal >>

for North American motorways, given their ongoing very significant pricing power. Research Analyst

MLI (UK)

Screening for risks of guidance and consensus cuts +44marcin.wojtal@bofa.com20 7996 1070

We believe AdP carries the highest risk of dropping its 2026E earnings guidance, and we Jake McCarthy >>

now forecast group EBITDA to fall 5% YoY (guidance: >+1% YoY). We reiterate Research Analyst

Underperform, with a new €113 PO. We also see modest downside risks to 2026E jacob.mccarthy2@bofa.com

consensus (but not to guidance) at Vinci (Underperform) due to traffic and at AENA

(Neutral) due to opex trends. Meanwhile, we expect Fraport (Buy) and Flughafen Zurich

(Buy) to deliver around the low end of their guidance, albeit moderately below

consensus. However, these two airports have full regulatory visibility and are coming out

Exhibit 1: Stocks Mentionedof their capex cycles, offering 8% and 5% 2028E FCFE yields, respectively. Ferrovial

POs of stocks mentioned in this report(Buy, new €68 PO) continues to capitalize on the strength of its Toll Roads portfolio and