JBIO/VERA: Our Latest Expectations on Potential Stock Moves Ahead of Important Upcoming Catalysts (Phase 1 JADE101 Data at ERA on June 5 and Atacicept PDUFA of July 7)

研报英文原文证据摘录

JBIO/VERA: Our Latest Expectations on Potential Stock Moves Ahead of Important Upcoming Catalysts (Phase 1 JADE101 Data at ERA on June 5 and Atacicept PDUFA of July 7)

BIOTECHNOLOGY

May 11, 2026

• JBIO Valuation: Our $32 price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation with cash flows forecasted through 2038,

a 12% discount rate reflecting clinical-stage development risk, and a probability of success of 65% for both U.S. and ex-U.S. markets

for JADE101. Our model assumes a U.S. commercial launch in 2030, with peak worldwide risk-adjusted sales of ~$1.1Bn by 2037,

manufacturing gross margins of 95%, and tiered royalty payments to Paragon Therapeutics (Private) ranging from 2-6% of net sales. We

do not count prefunded warrants as immediately dilutive for the purposes of the DCF value per share calculation to be consistent with the

valuation methodology across our SMID cap biopharma coverage.

• JBIO Risks: Jade finished 1Q 2026 with $311M in cash and cash equivalents on hand. Management expects its cash runway to last

into 1Q 2028. However, we do not expect Jade to be profitable on a continuing basis until 2031, so the company could raise additional

capital in the future, potentially diluting current investors. In addition, any delays or setbacks in the clinical development of JADE101 or

JADE201, including failure to meet clinical endpoints, unforeseen safety issues, or regulatory challenges, could significantly impact the

company's valuation.

• VERA Valuation: Our $56 price target is based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation with cash flows forecasted through 2040,

a 15% rate of terminal decline after 2040 and an 11.0% discount rate, which is generally consistent with the DCF methodology we use

for our other SMID-cap renal companies.