FOXA – BUY – Events and Core Trends Fuel Momentum, New NFL Windows Indicate Collaboration

研报英文原文证据摘录

FOXA – BUY – Events and Core Trends Fuel Momentum, New NFL Windows Indicate Collaboration

May 11, 2026

Michael Morris, CFA michael.morris@guggenheimpartners.com FOXA – BUY – Events and Core Trends Fuel

804 253 8025 Momentum, New NFL Windows Indicate

Charles Wilber

charles.wilber@guggenheimpartners.com Collaboration

804 335 3977

Taylor Manley Key Message: F3Q26 Adjusted EBITDA of $954M (+11% Y/Y) beat our estimate and taylor.manley@guggenheimpartners.com consensus. We raise both our revenue and expense estimates for F4Q26, primarily 804 253 1336

related to our refined World Cup forecast; net, our full-year EBITDA estimate increases

Grayson Glenn 7.6% for fiscal 2026 and 6.3% for fiscal 2027. Three layered catalysts underpin our

grayson.glenn@guggenheimpartners.com constructive view: 1) NFL Expansion: the announcement of two additional NFL games 804 253 8053 on the FOX network is a direct, incremental revenue driver worth an estimated $50-70M

in incremental annual advertising revenue. Importantly this is indicative of an open

communication channel between the league and FOX, despite recent headlines of a

possibly more contentious relationship (WSJ). As we have previously written, we do see

the potential for a broader NFL renewal as early as this year (though we do believe theFOXA BUY window is closing), which would likely include incremental cost and expense variability, Fox Corporation

Sector: Media & Internet and could impact our near-term profit forecast; 2) FY27 Ad Demand Convergence:

FOX is uniquely positioned with simultaneous exposure to the FIFA World Cup (~

Earnings Release $625-700M in estimated Fox ad revenue) and the 2026 midterm political cycle across

Share Price $62.94 its 29 O&O stations, an unprecedented combination; and 3) Fox News Pricing Gap: