Q1/26: Outlook Intact Despite Q1 Decline in Investment Balances

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q1/26: Outlook Intact Despite Q1 Decline in Investment Balances

Real Estate

Firm Capital Mortgage Investment Corp.

TD SECURITIES INC. - CANADA EARNINGS UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: C$11.93 (05/11/2026) Q1/26: Outlook Intact Despite Q1 Decline in

Price Target: C$13.00 Investment Balances

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 63/100

Sam Damiani, CFA^ THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

416 983 9640

Q1 investments declined 6% q/q, but a rebound is expected in Q2. Our 2026 EPS estimate

sam.damiani@tdsecurities.com

slipped 2% but continues to support a dividend exceeding $1.00. The AFR fell by an unusually

Linda Wang^ large 21bps q/q, but not overly surprising given the large Q1 repayments. FC remains attractive

416 983 9259 at just 1.0x P/Book and 8%+ yield, and there remains further upside potential if some provisions

linda.wang@tdsecurities.com

get released over time.

Key Data

Symbol TSX: FC-T Impact: NEUTRAL

12-Month Div (Est.): C$1.01

Results (Fig 2): Q1/26 EPS (basic) of $0.234 was slightly below our $0.240 estimate due to a

Beta: 0.81

lower Average Face Rate and lower investment balance. Firm's AFR fell by an usually large

12-Month Total

17.4% 21bps q/q to 9.29% (range since Q4/21: 7.9%-11.3%).Return:

52-Week Range: C$12.47-C$11.53

Gross mortgage investments were -6% q/q to $573mm (but have increased post-Q1) due to

Market Cap: C$438.0MM

an unusually slow pace of new funding. Nearly the entire $38mm q/q decline in investments

Net Debt (MM): C$110.6

occurred in the Construction category. Even after repaying the convertible debenture in Q1,

Dil. Shares Out (MM): 47.3

Firm still had $18mm of idle cash at March 31st. Firm's net debt/assets ratio fell to what we

Float Shares (mm): 36.4 believe will be a cycle-low of 19% in Q1, and well below the recent peak of 40% in 2022.

Float Cap ($mm): C$434