Post Q1 Thoughts: A/R Monetization Prog. Encouraging; Precedent Implies Upside

研报英文原文证据摘录

Post Q1 Thoughts: A/R Monetization Prog. Encouraging; Precedent Implies Upside

(YE2027 net debt to TTM adj. EBITDA forecast to be ~3.9x vs. Q1/26's 5.2x reported basis and

Yield: 0.0% 4.7x pro forma A/R monetization).

General: Net debt adjusted to reflect $105mm inflow from

Brazil A/R monetization. Permanent CEO announcement; agreement with Plantro (activist investor) to commence

strategic review within the next nine months. Following Q1/26's results, AFN announced that

FY 2025A 2026E 2027E Paul Brisebois (appointed as interim President & CEO in January 2026) has assumed the role

(Dec)

on a permanent basis. Further, AFN entered into a cooperation agreement (CA) with Plantro,

Sales ($mm)

agreeing to appoint Mick MacBean and Gary Anderson to the Board following the upcoming

Year C$1,421 C$1,307 C$1,350

AGM on June 4, 2026. Pursuant to the CA, Plantro withdrew its previously announced intention

Prior Year - C$1,272 C$1,314

to nominate three director candidates to AFN's Board. AFN has also committed to initiating a

strategic review process within the next nine months. Our AFN Quick Take published on April

EBITDA ($mm)

1, 2026 (see HERE) included a valuation framework based on AGCO-N’s 2024 Grain & Protein

Year C$204.8 C$179.8 C$216.6 business sale across a range of AFN adj. EBITDA scenarios. We have now updated this analysis

Prior Year - C$186.4 C$214.2 to reflect our revised 2026/2027 estimates and AFN's updated balance sheet detail (see Figure

2).

EPS (f.d.) (Adj.)

Updated Estimates: Our full-year 2026 & 2027 adj. EBITDA estimates are not materiallyQ1 C$(0.26) C$(0.29)A C$0.26

changed, but our TP has increased to $30 (was $22), driven by an increase in our target

Prior Q1 - C$(0.37) C$(0.03)

multiple; now based on 7.25x 2027E adj. EBITDA (vs. 6.25x, previously).