1Q26 Above Consensus; Awaiting New Deals

研报英文原文证据摘录

1Q26 Above Consensus; Awaiting New Deals

Utilities: Power Generation

Constellation Energy Group

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC QUICK TAKE: EARNINGS UPDATE

May 11, 2026

Price: $303.63 (05/8/2026) 1Q26 Above Consensus; Awaiting New Deals

Price Target: $381.00

BUY (1)

ESG SCORE: 61/100

Shelby Tucker, CFA THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1322

We view today's results positively. 1Q26 earnings beat consensus and our estimates. While

shelby.tucker@tdsecurities.com

guidance was left unchanged, we see the lack of an update as unsurprising given the recent

Eli Mingos business update. We continue to view regulatory changes in PJM and ERCOT as the nearer

646 562 1407 term catalysts and await clarity in both regions.

eli.mingos@tdsecurities.com

Key Data Constellation Energy reported 1Q26 adjusted operating EPS of $2.76, compared to consensus

Symbol NYSE: CEG of $2.54, TD Cowen at $2.60, and prior year of $2.14. Management attributed the results

Market Cap $110.0B to favorable market and portfolio conditions, including the contribution from Calpine and

stronger capacity revenues, partially offset by higher cost-to-serve, lower ZEC revenues, and

increased refueling outage days.

Guidance was left unchanged, with management reiterating its 2026 outlook and long-

term growth framework. Forward power markets have increased in recent weeks, driven by

higher RGGI pricing in PJM, and management highlighted incremental upside from recent

transactions, including the Calpine acquisition and signed powered land and data center

agreements that begin to underpin longer-term earnings visibility.

On the matter of incremental capacity, CEG has submitted 5 GW of new capacity in PJM in

the form of nuclear uprates, natural gas, and battery and storage investments. We believe