Q1/26: Volatility in Growth Business Line; Capital Return Program On Target

研报英文原文证据摘录

Q1/26: Volatility in Growth Business Line; Capital Return Program On Target

o be

Float Cap ($mm): C$533 immaterially lower than forecast due to aircraft leasing revenue. See QTC.

Enterprise Value

C$818.3

(MM): Management outlook remains substantially unchanged. Management reiterated 2026 guide

BV/Share: C$21.72 for FCF (Chorus definition) of $100-110 million (TD Cowen: $114 million) and adj. EBITDA of

Dividend: C$0.44 $170-185 million (TD Cowen: $177 million), and remains committed to its 2026-29 capital

Yield: 1.9% allocation strategy (see page 4). Sale of five remaining aircraft to occur through July 2026

General: The data above (excl. 12-month dividend estimate (unchanged). Additional aircraft monetization opportunities represents upside, in our view.

and float shares) reflects FactSet data. Refer to our comp

table for TD Cowen's calculation. Below, all quarterly per Management's focus remains on share buybacks, dividends, and M&A opportunities (not

share figures on or after Q4/24 and all annual per share included in TD Cowen forecast) that meet its mid-teens ROE threshold.

figures on or after 2024 reflect post-share consolidation.

We view Chorus' 2026-2029 capital plan as reasonable and believe it should help attract

FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E investor interest and unlock shareholder value. We forecast 2026-29 free cash flow (CHR

(Dec)

def'n + proceeds on disposal) of $491 million from 2026-2029 vs. company plan to allocate

EPS (f.d.)

$500-550 million of capital for amortizing term loans, dividends, buybacks, and other

Q1 C$0.57 C$0.54A - -

investments (incl. proceeds on disposal) with upside potential from additional aircraft

Prior Q1 - C$0.50 - - monetization opportunities. At $533 million market cap, implies capital equal to at least 30%