GEA GROUP (+) : Non material data changes

研报英文原文证据摘录

GEA GROUP (+) : Non material data changes

Investment case, valuation and risks

GEA Group (Outperform, Target Price EUR68)

Investment case

GEA has re-established itself as a quality name in the food & beverage machinery

sector with a multi-year beat-and-raise track record, mainly thanks to self-help. We see

the margin improvement story as intact, complemented by accelerated top-line growth

in 2026/27e, and expect EBITA to grow at an HSD CAGR (2025-28e). With GEA

shares trading broadly in line with the post-Covid EV/EBITA multiple despite top-line

acceleration, upside potential to consensus estimates as well as balance sheet

optionality, we rate the shares Outperform.

Valuation methodology

Our SOTP-based TP is based on our fair multiples for the respective divisions and our

divisional 2026/27 EBITA estimates.

Risks

To the upside:

i) More active capital allocation following the announcement of a EUR400m buyback

program in 2023-25; ii) self-help margin improvements (ERP tailwinds); iii) potential

value accretive M&A; iv) a further improvement in NWC; v) stronger than expected

demand in key existing end markets, e.g. China dairy; vi) new applications (e.g. New

Food); and vii) better traction through the localisation of product manufacturing (e.g.

China, India).

To the downside:

>50% of sales are from EMEA so that a recession would take a toll. Company-specific

risks: i) order delays and greater scrutiny to accept higher prices; ii) dairy consumption

(~30% of sales) might decline structurally; iii) ERP overhaul playing out more complex

and costly; and iv) reputational risk if product launches fall short of promises.

ClassificationBNP Paribas: ConfidentialExane Research Gea Group 11 MAY 2026 page 3

lcecil1@tulane.edu Loren Cecil 05/22/26 01:04:55 AM Tulane University