Vallourec: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Vallourec: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Vallourec (VLLP.PA)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Tubes utilisation rate (%) 62.9 62.5 75.0 70.0

Tubes EBITDA ($/tonne) (€) 623 689 725 670

62% Fe CFR China iron ore index

102 102 96 98

($/tonne) (€)

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

OCTG demand in international markets and in RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

the US Higher OCTG demand, particularly for seamless

Last steps of long turnaround story that closed tubes Sales / 3,688

the execution gap to peers Further cost savings Revenue 3,636 4,553

Shareholder distributions Higher shareholder distributions (€, mn) 3,997

Capital discipline in OCTG Shareholder restructuring

Higher iron ore prices

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE RISKS TO DOWNSIDE EBITDA 707 923

(€, mn)

0-10% Europe ex UK Softer outlook for commmodity prices, driving 836

0-10% Mainland China down demand for OCTG

0-10% UK More competitive environment vs. peers

10-20% MEA Lower iron ore prices Net income

313 492 30-40% Latin America (€, mn)

30-40% North America 417 OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

View explanation of regional hierarchies here Inst. Owners, % Active 72.2% EPS 1.36

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 2x (€) 1.26 2.19

1.70

MS ALPHA MODELS HF Sector Net Exposure 3%

MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates 3 Month Refinitiv; 2/5 exposures held with MSPB. Information may be Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research Horizon MOST inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / ShortSource: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For athe highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored