James Hardie Industries Plc: Expect FY26 beat & remain above Street for FY27; Buy

研报英文原文证据摘录

James Hardie Industries Plc: Expect FY26 beat & remain above Street for FY27; Buy

Recent demand & cost trends

Demand trends/channel checks

March Q volume trend

Our channel checks indicate siding market volumes were down high single digit in March

Q. For context: (1) we forecast JHX NA fiber cement volume to decline 3% yoy for March

Q; & (2) LPX reported siding volumes down 18% yoy in the March Q.

March Q pricing trend

JHX implemented its annual mid-to high single digit price hike for its siding products

earlier in the year. We forecast NA fiber cement pricing to grow 3% in March Q.

Recent US companies reporting/outlook

Recent reporting from US companies with similar end-markets indicates that

results/outlook have been better than feared with 51%/71% of the Building Products

(incl distributors)/ Homebuilders have either beat or maintained FY26 guidance (as of

week ending May 10).

Exhibit 1: 1Q26 earnings “scorecard” through week 2 Exhibit 2: 1Q26 earnings “scorecard” through week 2

Building Products/Distributors (16 companies)* Homebuilders (7 companies)**

Beat In-line Miss Beat In-line Miss

1Q26 earnings 50% 6% 44% 1Q26 earnings 43% 29% 29%

2Q26 guidance 6% 31% 63% 2Q26 guidance 29% 29% 43%

2026 guidance 13% 38% 50% 2026 guidance 0% 71% 29%

Source: Company data, BofA Global Research, *MAS, POOL, HAYW, ALLE, AWI, MHK, PNR, SITE, Source: Company data, BofA Global Research, **DHI, PHM, NVR, MTH, TMHC, DFH, SDHC

BLDR, BLD, IBP, SGI, FBIN, OC, WHR. LPX BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

LPX and TREX read across to JHX

LPX

Louisiana-Pacific (LPX, covered by George Staphos) is a direct competitor in siding and

the second largest siding manufacturer after JHX. LPX’s 1Q (March Q) siding

performance beat expectations while FY26 guide was above. Key points: (1) LPX noted