Money In The Bank: Easing supply needs

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Money In The Bank: Easing supply needs

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Money In The Bank

Easing supply needs

Industry Overview

Key takeaways 11 May 2026

High Grade Credit• We see bank supply easing in the rest of 2026. Senior issuance is >60% of our FY

Europe

expectations. AT1/T2 issuance -17% YTD. Banks

• Lloyds, SocGen, ABN and DB have larger funding needs based on plans. But banks are

generally well advanced. Luis Garrido, CFA Research Analyst

BofASE (France)• We do not expect a material tilt towards senior preferred issuance (at least for now) +33 1 8770 0308

with EU depositor preference. luis.garrido@bofa.com

Richard Thomas

Research Analyst

BofASE (France)NIP it in the bud richard2.thomas@bofa.com

We expect bank supply to ease in the rest of 2026, given exceptionally large FY25 AT1 Katharine Lennon

and senior non-preferred/holdco issuance which we think included some pre-funding. Research Analyst

Banks have typically made good progress in their funding plans. Lloyds, SocGen, ABN MLIkatharine.lennon@bofa.com(UK)

and DB screen as having some of the largest absolute amounts left to issue in FY26

based on the upper end of guidance ranges provided (Exhibit 2, Exhibit 3). UBS

conversely is well advanced, with only $2bn senior holdco left to issue. Banks have taken Exhibit 1: Issuance left to go in FY26

advantage of good primary market access, which we suspect will continue to make Across the capital structure (€bn)

material new issue premia (NIP) a relative rarity.

Left

Senior issuance +9% YTD, AT1/T2 almost down by a fifth RABOBK**NDAFH** 11.511.0

European bank issuance is up 4% yoy in the first 19 weeks of the year (to 8 May), at LLOYDS 9.4

€192bn. Senior debt issuance is 9% higher yoy (Exhibit 4), driven by senior CMZB* 9.0

preferred/senior opco.