Petrobras: Model Update and 1Q26 Conference Call Feedback

研报英文原文证据摘录

Petrobras: Model Update and 1Q26 Conference Call Feedback

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Petrobras (PBR.N)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Average Oil Price ($/bbl Real Terms) 69 91 80 75

Brazil Crude Production (Kbbl/d) 2,394 2,600 2,698 2,807

Refining Margins ($/bbl Real Terms) 3.9 4.4 4.3 4.3

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Oil production growth RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Dividend distribution More upstream projects delivered ahead of 4.55 Crude oil and fuel prices schedule EPS

Refining margins Production curve closer to the upper range of (US$) 2.35 4.76

Maintenance of strong governance the business plan (+4%) 3.99

Higher oil prices opening space for

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE extraordinary dividends into 2027 EBITDA 59,843

43,080 75,178 APAC, ex Japan, Mainland RISKS TO DOWNSIDE (US$, mm) 0-10% China and India 60,209 Changes to corporate governance standards

0-10% Europe ex UK Large cash settlements of off B/S liabilities

0-10% India Announcement of sizeable M&A transactions in Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

0-10% Mainland China fuel distribution & petrochemicals Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

0-10% North America

0-10% UK

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING 70-80% Latin America

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate Inst. Owners, % Active 88.8%

View explanation of regional hierarchies here HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.7x

HF Sector Net Exposure 4.3%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 5