Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Risk Reward Update

研报英文原文证据摘录

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Coca-Cola Europacific Partners (CCEPC.AS)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS

Drivers 2025 2026e 2027e 2028e

Est. Organic Growth (%) 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3

Volume Growth (%) 0.2 1.3 1.2 1.4

Gross Margin Bps Change (5.7) 34.7 9.9 10.0

Operating Margin Bps Change 40.5 53.1 49.8 44.6

EPS % Growth (%) 4.2 8.5 8.2 8.1

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Macro and cost headwinds in Western Europe RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Dec 2026e

Price/mix realization through revenue growth Western European consumer strengthening, 4.46 management (RGM) toolkit stronger away-from-home trends, lower EPS

Cost savings provide incremental margin commodity inflation, higher than expected cost (€) 4.28 4.54

LT opportunity to develop sparkling category in savings, upside in the Philippines, and improved 4.45

Indonesia trends in Indonesia.

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE Sales / 21,459

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE Higher than expected commodity inflation, Revenue 21,279 21,713

increased pressure from retailers on pricing, (€, mm) 21,453

weaker Western European consumer trends, 10-20% UK

weakness in Indonesia, volume pressure from 70-80% Europe ex UK Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

health/wellness trends.

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

View explanation of regional hierarchies here

Inst. Owners, % Active 59.6%

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.2x

HF Sector Net Exposure 1.1%

Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /